Technology Foresight for Growth and Productivity: The Design and Implementation of a New Foresight Approach for UK SMEs

In 2019, the Faculty of Business and Social Sciences at Kingston University Business School conducted research on Technology Foresight (TF), a strategic method employed by large multinational companies to guide their technology innovation planning. The research involved participation from several DigitalHealth.London Accelerator companies, facilitated by support and funding from the BEIS Business Basics Programme, Innovate UK, and the Innovation Growth Lab at Nesta. This study culminated in the publication of “Innovation and Foresight in SMEs: Lessons From the Case of U.K. Digital Health Companies” in the Transactions on Engineering Management Journal in November 2023.

Overview

Technological change is a key challenge for organisations, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that have limited resources for monitoring and developing emerging technologies. However, technological change represents a huge opportunity for those organisations that can identify new technologies early and anticipate their future evolution, impact and response options.

Since the early 2000s, a significant number of corporate organisations have successfully applied an innovative management approach to monitor new technologies and systematically analyse their future evolution and impact. Such an approach is commonly known as Technology (or strategic) Foresight and includes techniques such as technology road mapping and Delphi. Despite this, there is little evidence of its use in SMEs, though foresight might enable SMEs to systematically share knowledge about new technologies, set priorities and join efforts for the optimal allocation of their resources.

To explore this further, the Faculty of Business and Social Sciences at Kingston University Business School developed and tested a simple, effective and scalable foresight method specifically responding to the needs (and challenges) of SMEs in 2019. The research involved participation from several DigitalHealth.London Accelerator companies, facilitated by support and funding from the BEIS Business Basics Programme, Innovate UK, and the Innovation Growth Lab at Nesta. This study culminated in the publication of “Innovation and Foresight in SMEs: Lessons From the Case of U.K. Digital Health Companies” in the Transactions on Engineering Management Journal in November 2023.

Journey

The initial phase centered on identifying SMEs within DigitalHealth.London for project involvement, as well as pinpointing technology experts, raising awareness among stakeholders, gathering background information, and compiling a preliminary list of potentially relevant technologies to enhance SMEs’ productivity in the future.

Afterwards, a three round Delphi process was carried out to enable the evaluation of the preliminary list of technologies and the identification of the most relevant technologies for the target cluster of SMEs.

Finally, two workshops were held for all selected entrepreneurs and technology experts to meet and assess the evolution, impact (e.g., new products and processes), and response options available for adopting and/or developing the critical technologies identified. These workshops also explored the joint actions enabling the SMEs to overcome the limitations (e.g., expertise and finances) of each firm.

Impact/Outcomes

• UK SMEs can now benefit from a technology foresight methodology that is effective, scalable, and easy to use (especially those operating in clusters).
• A list of critical technologies (i.e., Artificial Intelligence (AI), Big Data Analytics, Smart Devices, Internet of Things etc) specifically related to the SMEs of DigitalHealth.London that participated in the project.
• A list of key actions enabling these same firms to concretely develop/adopt the critical technologies identified through the foresight exercise.
• Increased capability to assess new technologies
• Deepened understanding of critical technologies for future growth and productivity
• Identified barriers to the adoption of new technologies
• Identified actions for accelerating productivity
• Enhanced networking
• Better understanding of business foresight processes

Six months after the completion of the project, a survey was also carried out to collect the feedback of the SME managers who participated. Results showed that among the 11 managers that completed the survey, six had already invested in at least one of the four technologies (AI, Big Data Analytics, Smart Devices, Internet of Things) that were highlighted in the foresight evaluation process while eight managers were considering investing (or investing further) in these technologies within the next three years.

Next Steps

After the conclusion of the foresight exercise, the outputs of the project were disseminated through publications in academic journals and conferences.

The success of the project regarded the use of the outputs by the SME managers and their future efforts to adopt at least one of the critical technologies identified in the project. In this regard, after the completion of the project, several SME managers communicated their intention to invest in AI.

Some managers also pointed out that it would be very interesting to replicate the technology foresight project in other digital health clusters in the UK (e.g., Manchester or Nottingham) and compare the results – especially concerning the feasibility of the key technologies selected in the case of DigitalHealth.London.

Find out more about the publication in the Transactions on Engineering Management Journal.

The DigitalHealth.London Accelerator programme is funded by the UK Government via the UK Shared Prosperity Fund (UKSPF). It is delivered by the Health Innovation Network (HIN) South London in partnership with the Office of Life Sciences, CW+, Medicity, NHS England, the Mayor of London and the Levelling Up Fund.

For more information, please visit https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-
shared-prosperity-fund-prospectus.